Experience of Ukraine and Georgia in the process of Euro-Atlantic integration
Ilko Kucheriv’s Democratic Initiative Foundation has conducted the international expert survey regarding the ways and methods of conducting the informational-educational campaign “Ukraine-NATO”. 51 experts were polled in Ukraine on August 3 – September 7, 2011. 12 experts were polled in Georgia on October 1-17, 2011.
• The absolute majority of Ukrainian and Georgian experts is sure that NATO in a modern world is a military-political alliance of independent states united by the mutual system of values of democracy and freedom.
• The majority of experts evaluates the expansion of NATO as a favorable process of spreading democracy and security in Europe that would assist Ukraine to strengthen its independence.
• The vast majority of polled experts consider that today there are significant threats to independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine. To avoid these threats the majority of Ukrainian and Georgian experts offers joining NATO.
• Amongst forces that are interested in Ukraine joining NATO experts named the USA and European countries. The majority of Ukrainian experts consider Ukrainian people to be the most interested in joining NATO.
• The vast majority of Ukrainian experts thinks that Parliament of Ukraine is the body that should make the decision on Ukraine joining NATO, and Georgian experts assume that the decision should be made at all-Ukrainian referendum.
• The absolute majority of Ukrainian and Georgian experts is sure that joining NATO guarantees national security of Ukraine.
• To the mind of the most of Ukrainian experts, joining NATO is a matter of mid-term perspective (5–10 years). The opinions of Georgian experts fell into two parts, half of them think that it is a matter of mid-term perspective (5–10 years), and the other thinks that it is matter of long-term perspective (10-15 years).
• Among possible consequences of nonaligned status of Ukraine and the policy of active neutrality Ukrainian and Georgian experts stated that Ukraine would not be able to secure the sovereignty and insure national security on its own as well as that the position and influence of Ukraine on world scene will be weakened. Georgian experts also mark that Ukraine might gradually become the satellite of Russia.
• Opinions of Ukrainian experts regarding the importance of joining NATO in its accession to European Union were split into two major parts. One of them thinks that joining NATO will be very important, crucial, and the other assumes that it will be in general important, but not crucial. The majority of Georgian experts considers that it would be in general important, but not crucial.
• The majority of experts is sure that having joined NATO Ukraine would meet minimal criteria for becoming EU member state candidate. Georgian experts think that Ukraine would demonstrate its commitment to the democratic values necessary for EU membership.
• Both Ukrainian and Georgian experts think that there is a need to participate in political-economic bloc of Georgia-Ukraine-Armenia-Moldova (GUAM). To their mind there is no need to participate in such organizations as CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) and SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization).
• If Ukraine will be accessed to NATO the most positive influence will appear in the following spheres: Relations with European Union, International security of Ukraine, Defense capability of Ukraine, International authority of Ukraine. The most negative influence it would have on the relations with Russia.
• The absolute majority of Ukrainian and Georgian experts thinks that in economic sphere joining NATO will improve investments climate, will provide the possibility to attract foreign investors.
• Among political consequences that can appear after Ukraine has joined NATO the majority of experts stated that Ukraine would improve its reputation in democratic society and fit with democratic standards of the West.
• The relative majority of Ukrainian experts stated that joining NATO would negatively influence Ukrainian – Russian relations in the economic sphere, and Georgian experts are sure that these relations would worsen at the beginning, but then stabilize.
• The majority of Ukrainian experts think that Russian-Ukrainian relations in the sphere of politics will deteriorate and Georgian experts think that they will improve.
• The absolute majority of experts stated that the level of awareness of Ukrainian population about NATO is in general non-satisfactory.
• Amongst the reasons for the negative attitude of Ukrainian population towards NATO the majority of Ukrainian and Georgian experts name poor awareness about true nature of NATO as well as spreading of populist and twisted information about it.
• Among the reasons that could improve the attitude of the population towards NATO, Ukrainian and Georgian experts underlined: conducting Strong and complex informational campaign about NATO, spreading the truthful information, open discussions of various NATO actions.
Results of expert survey in Ukraine
- How do you evaluate the role of NATO in the modern world?
1 - military-political union of independent states, united by the mutual system of values of democracy and freedom | 46 experts |
2 - aggressive bloc that propagates the ideology of expansion, using the military force | 0 experts |
3 - the tool of influence of the USA on the political processes in the world and in Europe; | 0 experts |
4 – the structure that is already inconsistent and has to be replaced with the new system of European security with participation of Ukraine and Russia; | 1 expert |
5 – other | 4 expert |
2 experts think that NATO is Trans-Atlantic military-political alliance with leading role of the USA, which is temporarily weakened due to the weakness of the USA and problems in Europe.
1 expert considers that NATO is an instrument of providing security of its members.
- How do you evaluate the process of NATO expansion?
1 – it is a favorable process that would assist Ukraine to strengthen its independence | 35 mentions |
2 - it is a favorable process of strengthening democracy for Ukraine and improving security in Europe | 43 mentions |
3 – it is disadvantageous process that enforces the dependence of Ukraine on Western countries | 0 mentions |
4 - it is disadvantageous process for Ukraine of strengthening of military bloc that threatens Ukraine | 0 mentions |
5 - it is disadvantageous process as Ukraine can be involved into the confrontation between Russia and NATO | 2 mentions |
| 0 mentions |
7 – other | 3 mentions |
1 expert underlined that it is an “expansion of secured territory in Europe, it is a small sobering-up station for Russian”.
- To your opinion, are there outside threats to independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine?
1 - there are very significant threats | 13 experts |
2 - there are significant threats | 24 experts |
3 - there are threats, but minor ones | 14 experts |
4 - there are no threats | 0 experts |
5 - it is difficult to answer | 0 experts |
- If you consider that there are threats to independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine, what is the way to make it secure for Ukraine?
1 – fixed nonaligned status of Ukraine | 1 expert |
2 - joining NATO | 38 experts |
3 – joining CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) | 0 experts |
4 – creating Unified European system of collective security | 5 experts |
5 - other | 6 experts |
6 - it is difficult to answer | 1 expert |
3 experts stated that threats to independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine can be eliminated by means of strengthening of democracy and economy, development of own military forces and protection of national interests of Ukraine, elimination of internal threats (corruption, bundle of population based on property, confession, and language preferences).
- Who, to your opinion, is interested in Ukraine joining NATO?
1 - Ukrainian people | 29 mentions |
2 - separate regions of Ukraine (which ones?): 2.1 West 2.2 Center 2.3 Nord 2.4 East 2.5 South | 17 mentions 12 mentions 9 mentions 3 mentions 0 mentions 0 mentions |
3 - separate social groups (which ones?): 3.1 Intelligentsia 3.2 Youth 3.3 Middle-class 3.4 Military men 3.5 Public activists 3.6 NGO | 18 mentions 6 mentions 6 mentions 4 mentions 3 mentions 1 mention 1 mention |
4 - President Yanukovitch | 6 mentions |
5 - certain political forces (which ones?): 5.1 the whole specter of national-patriotic and democratic forces 5.2 Our Ukraine party 5.3 BYT (Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko) 5.4 People’s Movement of Ukraine 5.5 Front of Changes 5.6 remnants of “Orange” camp 5.7 Socialistic party of Ukraine | 16 mentions 10 mentions 3 mentions 2 mentions 2 mentions 2 mentions 2 mentions 1 mention |
6 - business-structures 6.1 interested in European and North-American markets | 13 mentions 2 mentions |
7 – The United States of America | 23 mentions |
8 – European countries | 22 mentions |
9 - others 9.1 those segments of the society and elite that consider Ukraine to be organic part of Euro-Atlantic (values and security based) area | 5 mentions 2 mentions |
10 - nobody is interested | 2 mentions |
11- it is difficult to answer | 0 mentions |
Not answered by 1 expert
- Who should make decisions on Ukraine joining NATO?
1 – President of Ukraine | 8 experts |
2 – Parliament of Ukraine | 21 expert |
3 – all-Ukrainian referendum | 11 experts |
4 - other institution (which one?) 4.1 President of Ukraine, government and parliament are to approve and all-Ukrainian referendum to support 4.2 National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine 4.3 Experts | 9 experts 5 mentions
2 mentions 1 mention |
5 - it is difficult to answer | 2 experts |
As one of the experts stated: «considering the fact that the Statute of NATO states that referendum is not obligatory, the decision of joining international institutions is to be made by higher governmental structures, i.e. in presidential-parliamentary republic – the president and the parliament. However, considering the fact that after the decade of active NATO demonization it is difficult to expect that zombie voters (please, do not confuse with people) will simultaneously realize the necessity of joining NATO for their own security and benefits, the decision in favor of returning back to NATO track should be preceded by real informational-educational work (or at least strong and long-lasting informational campaign) conducted by not only leading analysts, but also representatives of the whole political sector».
- Does joining NATO guarantee national security to Ukraine?
1 – yes | 42 experts |
2 - no | 3 experts |
3 - it is difficult to answer | 6 experts |
- How do you assess the prospects for Ukraine joining NATO?
1 – this is the matter of the nearest future (2–4 years) | 3 experts |
2 – this is the matter of mid-term perspective (5–10 years) | 27 experts |
3 – this is the matter of long-term perspective (over 10–15 years) | 14 experts |
4 – this is the matter of very long-term perspective | 3 experts |
5 – Ukraine will never become a member of NATO | 2 experts |
6 - it is difficult to answer | 0 experts |
- To your opinion, what kind of consequences will nonaligned status of Ukraine and the policy of active neutrality bring?
1– the possibility to focus on securing own national interests will appear | 4 mentions |
2 – own national policy of military-strategic and defense planning will be realized irrespective to the opinions of other countries, but based on current interests of Ukraine | 4 mentions |
3 – Ukraine will stop being the hostage of geo-political rivalry | 3 mentions |
4 - the tension of social-political opposition inside Ukraine will be partially relieved; | 20 mentions |
5 – new perspectives for arranging constructive economic relations and cooperation with both East and West will be opened | 6 mentions |
6 - Ukraine will not be able to secure the sovereignty and insure national security on its own | 37 mentions |
7 - Ukraine will not be able to provide for defense capability of its army on its own | 28 mentions |
8 - Ukraine will gradually become the satellite of Russia | 30 mentions |
9– the position and influence of Ukraine on world scene will be weakened | 38 mentions |
10 - military expenses will be significantly increased | 16 mentions |
11 - other (what exactly?) 11.1 degradation both of Ukrainian army as an institution and individuals who can seek for their military career in other countries | 1 mention 1 mention |
- To your opinion, will joining NATO be an important factor for Ukraine in its accession to European Union?
1 – very important, crucial | 24 experts |
2 – in general important, but not crucial; | 24 experts |
3 - of a little importance, other factors will matter | 2 experts |
4- in general joining NATO will not influence the accession to EU | 0 experts |
5- it is difficult to answer | 0 experts |
Not answered by 1 expert
10а. If you consider that joining NATO will positively influence European integration of Ukraine, please describe how
1 - having joined NATO Ukraine would meet minimal criteria for becoming EU member state candidate | 19 mentions |
2 – investments, modernization of economy, competitiveness | 4 mentions |
3 – formation of internal and external politics of Ukraine based on European values | 4 mentions |
4 – growth of political role of Ukraine | 3 mentions |
5 – the possibility of closer bilateral dialogue and cooperation with influential countries will appear | 3 mentions |
6 – the level of trust for Ukraine will grow | 2 mentions |
7 – visa regime will be cancelled | 2 mentions |
8 - other | 7 mentions |
Not answered by 13 experts
- Do you consider it necessary for Ukraine to participate in the following organizations?
Name | Yes | No | Difficult to say |
1. GUAM (political-economic bloc of Georgia-Ukraine-Armenia-Moldova) | 39 experts | 3 experts | 7 experts |
2. CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) | 3 experts | 38 experts | 8 experts |
3. United air defense system | 12 experts | 20 experts | 17 experts |
4.SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) | 5 experts | 33 experts | 11 experts |
5. Renewed system of European defense, alternative to NATO | 8 experts | 19 experts | 22 experts |
Not answered by 2 experts
12. If Ukraine will be accessed to NATO how will it influence the following spheres?
On the scale 0 - 10, where «0» means extremely negative, and «10» - maximally positive
Name | Average score | No influence | Difficult to say
|
1. Relations with European Union | 8,75 | 0 experts | 2 experts |
2. Relations with Russia | 4 | 0 experts | 2 experts |
3. Government effectiveness | 7 | 2 experts | 3 experts |
4. International security of Ukraine | 8,75 | 0 experts | 1 expert |
5. International authority of Ukraine | 8,4 | 0 experts | 1 expert |
6. Economy development | 7,4 | 1 expert | 2 experts |
7. Defense capability of Ukraine | 8,5 | 0 experts | 1 expert |
8. The level of democracy in Ukraine | 8 | 0 experts | 1 expert |
9. The level of well-being of the population of Ukraine | 6,8 | 3 experts | 1 expert |
10. The level of corruption | 6,9 | 1 expert | 4 experts |
11. The work of enterprises of military-industrial complex | 7,4 |
| 3 experts |
13. How will accession to NATO influence economic situation in Ukraine?
1 – it will improve the investments climate, will provide the possibility to attract foreign investors | 48 mentions |
2 - it will provide the possibility to Ukrainian products to enter the markets of NATO countries (if yes, what kind of products?) 2.1 Production of military-industrial complex 2.2 Aviation products 2.3 Agricultural, food products 2.4 NATO membership is a sort of the quality certificate, insurance, which in general brings the level of trust to the country to a higher level | 26 mentions
9 mentions 5 mentions 2 mentions 2 mentions |
3 - it will lead to the decrease of the sales of Ukrainian products in Russia (what kind of products, by which manufacturers?) 3.1 Agricultural 3.2 All categories 3.3 Production of military-industrial complex | 16 mentions
4 mentions 3 mentions 2 mentions |
4 - it will make the realization of mutual projects with Russia in high-tech spheres more complicated (what kind of projects?) 4.1 Aircraft 4.2 Shipbuilding 4.3 Defense complex | 15 mentions
5 mentions 2 mentions 3 mentions |
5 – it will lead to the shortening of work places in Ukrainian military-industrial complex and related sectors | 3 mentions |
6– it will cause economic sanctions from Russia against Ukrainian business (what kind of spheres and enterprises can suffer?) 6.1 Agricultural and food 6.2 Metallurgy 6.3 Chemical industry | 15 mentions
4 mentions 4 mentions 2 mentions |
7 – it will not significantly influence economic potential of Ukraine | 7 mentions |
8 - other (what exactly?) 8.1 politically initiated rollback of mutual projects with Russia will be observed, Russia will show pressure, aggressive informational campaign, “trade wars” with Russia | 1 mention 1 mention |
9 – it is difficult to answer |
|
14. What kind of political consequences can appear after Ukraine has joined NATO?
1 – Ukraine will have to fit with democratic standards of the West | 45 mentions |
2 – Ukraine will improve its reputation in democratic society | 47 mentions |
3– it will lead to mass protests | 4 mentions |
4– it will provoke the split of Ukraine into West and South-East | 2 mentions |
5 – the ratings of political forces that supported Ukraine’s accession to NATO will go down | 4 mentions |
6 – visa regime will be introduced with Russia and other countries of the CIS, which will cause the displeasure of separated families | 6 mentions |
7 - other (what exactly?) 7.1 will promote filling declared independence with real content and realization of necessary reforms 7.2 aggressive actions of Russia in informational, economic and energy spheres | 6 mentions 2 mentions 2 mentions |
8– there will be no significant political consequences | 3 mentions |
9 – it is difficult to answer. |
|
15 . How, to your opinion, will the accession of Ukraine to NATO influence Russian-Ukrainian relations in the sphere of economy?
1 - relations will deteriorate | 11 mentions |
2 - relations will worsen in the beginning, but then stabilize | 8 mentions |
3 - No significant changes will occur | 7 mentions |
4 - Russia will try to establish economic embargo against Ukrainian producers | 5 mentions |
5 - relations will improve | 3 mentions |
6 – rollback of cooperation in certain high-tech spheres will be observed | 3 mentions |
7 – it is difficult to say | 3 mentions |
8 - other | 8 mentions |
Not answered by 5 experts
1 expert stated that “it is difficult to be responsible for the possible irrational actions of managers of neighbor state, but objectively Russia is a country with market economy, though with the dominating role of the state. Thus, economic interests win in the end”.
16. How, to your opinion, will the accession of Ukraine to NATO influence Russian-Ukrainian relations in the sphere of politics?
1- relations will deteriorate | 17 mentions |
2 – first the relations will worsen, then will go back to previous level | 13 mentions |
3 – the situation will not change significantly | 11 mentions |
4 – relations will improve | 6 mentions |
5 – other | 5 mentions |
Not answered by 6 experts
17. How do you evaluate the level of awareness of Ukrainian population about NATO?
1 – quite high; | 0 experts |
2 – in general, satisfactory; | 2 experts |
3 - in general, non-satisfactory | 42 experts |
4 – almost null | 7 experts |
5– it is difficult to say | 0 experts |
18. Numerous sociological researches show that the majority of Ukrainian population is against of the membership of Ukraine in NATO. Why?
1 - Population is poorly informed about true nature of NATO and populist and twisted information is spread | 25 mentions |
2 – stereotypes and myths about NATO are working | 15 mentions |
3 – anti-NATO propaganda | 8 mentions |
4 – there is no understanding of aims and directions of NATO development, the perspective role of Ukraine in NATO is not clear | 3 mentions |
5 – politization of the issue of joining NATO | 3 mentions |
6 – population of Ukraine is not against joining NATO | 1 mention |
7 – other | 12 mentions |
Not answered by 4 experts
1 expert stated that «in Ukraine the habit of basing conclusions not on the knowledge, but on ignorance is dominating. Thus everything that is unknown is scary. In mass consciousness the image of NATO is a mix of Soviet myths and political scary stories of internal usage from the last years. The more Soviet we have inside the worse is the attitude towards NATO».
19. Which reasons, to your opinion, can improve the attitude of the population towards NATO?
1- spreading the information, open discussions of various NATO actions | 15 mentions |
2 – specific information regarding the benefits of cooperation and possible membership | 10 mentions |
3 – informational campaigns on security of NATO member countries | 6 mentions |
4 – introduction of the obligatory series of lectures on European and Euro-Atlantic integration of Ukraine in schools and universities | 4 mentions |
5 – eliminating stereotypes | 3 mentions |
6 – the generation should change | 1 mention |
7 – other | 15 mentions |
Not answered by 4 experts
1 expert thinks that there is a need to create new system of collective security based on NATO with the new name, for example, Bloc of Countries of North Hemisphere, which will include Ukraine and Russia as well as other European countries. Political will which Ukraine greatly lacks is needed for this.
List of experts
- Aksionov Gennadiy
- Bagmed Mykhailo
- Boyko Volodymyr
- Garan Oleksiy
- Glori Tatiana
- Golovko Volodymyr
- Gonchar Mykhailo
- Gorban Yuriy
- Grebenchuk Yuriy
- Grechaninov Vadim
- Grigorieva Oksana
- Dzherdzh Sergiy
- Zhivotovsky Kiril
- Zamyatin Victor
- Kanana Petro
- Kastelli Vadim
- Kokoshinsky Oleg
- Kolomiets Oleksiy
- Kordon Bogdan
- Kostina Natalya
- Kravchenko Valeriy
- Krupka Olexander
- Kulyk Sergiy
- Mamalyga Olexander
- Martsinovsky Anatoliy
- Nagirny Volodymyr
- Paliy Olexander
- Pasichnyk Sergiy
- Petriv Taras
- Prystavsky Igor
- Protsyk Petro
- Pidluska Inna
- Romaniuk Yuriy
- Sviderska Nataliya
- Sydorchuk Oleksiy
- Skarga Galyna
- Soskin Oleg
- Stadilna Yana
- Sungurovsky Mykola
- Sushko Olexander
- Todorov Igor
- Tratsevitch Tamara
- Tryakina Galyna
- Fomushkin Oleg
- Chumak Victor
- Shamrai Ivan
- Sharuda Yuriy
- Shestakova Liudmyla
- Shlinchak Victor
- Shulga Ivan
- Yanchenko Anton
Results of expert survey in Georgia
- How do you evaluate the role of NATO in the modern world?
1 - military-political union of independent states, united by the mutual system of values of democracy and freedom | 12 experts |
2 - aggressive bloc that propagates the ideology of expansion, using the military force | 0 expert |
3 - the tool of influence of the USA on the political processes in the world and in Europe; | 0 expert |
4 – the structure that is already inconsistent and has to be replaced with the new system of European security with participation of Ukraine and Russia; | 0 expert |
5 – other |
|
- How do you evaluate the process of NATO expansion?
1 – it is a favorable process that would assist Ukraine to strengthen its independence | 6 mentions |
2 - it is a favorable process of strengthening democracy for Ukraine and improving security in Europe | 10 mentions |
3 – it is disadvantageous process that enforces the dependence of Ukraine on Western countries | 0 mentions |
4 - it is disadvantageous process for Ukraine of strengthening of military bloc that threatens Ukraine | 0 mentions |
5 - it is disadvantageous process as Ukraine can be involved into the confrontation between Russia and NATO | 0 mentions |
| 1 mentions |
7 – other |
|
- To your opinion, are there outside threats to independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine?
1 - there are very significant threats | 2 experts |
2 - there are significant threats | 7 experts |
3 - there are threats, but minor ones | 2 experts |
4 - there are no threats | 1 expert |
5 - it is difficult to answer |
|
- If you consider that there are threats to independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine, what is the way to make it secure for Ukraine?
1 – fixed nonaligned status of Ukraine | 1 expert |
2 - joining NATO | 10 experts |
3 – joining CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) | 0 expert |
4 – creating Unified European system of collective security | 0 expert |
5 - other | 0 expert |
6 - it is difficult to answer | 0 expert |
Not answered by 1 expert
- Who, to your opinion, is interested in Ukraine joining NATO?
1 - Ukrainian people | 4 mentions | |||
2 - separate regions of Ukraine | 2 mentions | |||
2.1 The West Part of Ukraine | 1 references |
| ||
3 - separate social groups | 4 mentions | |||
3.1 Professionals oriented towards modern values | 1 references |
| ||
4 - President Yanukovitch | 0 mentions | |||
5 - certain political forces | 5 mentions | |||
5.1 Political groups interested in truly sovereign and democratic Ukraine; | 1 references
|
| ||
6 - business | 2 mentions | |||
7 - the USA | 8 mentions | |||
8 - European countries | 8 mentions | |||
9 - other | 1 mentions | |||
9.1 Georgia | 1 references |
| ||
10 - nobody is interested | 0 mentions | |||
11- it is difficult to answer | 0 mentions | |||
- Who should make decisions on Ukraine joining NATO?
1 – President of Ukraine | 1 mentions |
2 – Parliament of Ukraine | 3 mentions |
3 – all-Ukrainian referendum | 5 mentions |
4 – other institution | 0 mentions |
5 - it is difficult to answer | 3 mentions |
One expert thinks that «citizens of Ukraine will not vote for NATO in all-Ukrainian referendum in the nearest future».
- Does joining NATO guarantee national security to Ukraine?
1 – yes | 12 experts |
2 - no | 0 expert |
3 - it is difficult to answer | 0 expert |
- How do you assess the prospects for Ukraine joining NATO?
1 – this is the matter of the nearest future (2–4 years) | 2 experts |
2 – this is the matter of mid-term perspective (5–10 years) | 4 experts |
3 – this is the matter of long-term perspective (over 10–15 years) | 4 experts |
4 – this is the matter of very long-term perspective | 0 expert |
5 – Ukraine will never become a member of NATO | 2 experts |
6 - it is difficult to answer | 0 expert |
- To your opinion, what kind of consequences will nonaligned status of Ukraine and the policy of active neutrality bring?
1– the possibility to focus on securing own national interests will appear | 1 mentions |
2 – own national policy of military-strategic and defense planning will be realized irrespective to the opinions of other countries, but based on current interests of Ukraine | 0 mentions |
3 – Ukraine will stop being the hostage of geo-political rivalry | 1 mentions |
4 - the tension of social-political opposition inside Ukraine will be partially relieved; | 1 mentions |
5 – new perspectives for arranging constructive economic relations and cooperation with both East and West will be opened | 1 mentions |
6 - Ukraine will not be able to secure the sovereignty and insure national security on its own | 8 mentions |
7 - Ukraine will not be able to provide for defense capability of its army on its own | 2 mentions |
8 - Ukraine will gradually become the satellite of Russia | 5 mentions |
9– the position and influence of Ukraine on world scene will be weakened | 4 mentions |
10 - military expenses will be significantly increased | 4 mentions |
11 - other | 0 mentions |
- To your opinion, will joining NATO be an important factor for Ukraine in its accession to European Union?
1 – very important, crucial | 2 experts |
2 – in general important, but not crucial; | 9 experts |
3 - of a little importance, other factors will matter | 1 expert |
4- in general joining NATO will not influence the accession to EU | 0 expert |
5- it is difficult to answer | 0 expert |
10a. If you consider that joining NATO will positively influence European integration of Ukraine, please describe how
Ukraine will demonstrate its commitment to the democratic values necessary for EU membership | 6 mentions |
Ukraine will become stable and secure country |
|
11. Do you consider it necessary for Ukraine to participate in the following organizations?
Name | Yes | No | Difficult to say | Not answered by expert |
1. GUAM (political-economic bloc of Georgia-Ukraine-Armenia-Moldova) | 11 experts | 0 expert | 1 expert | 0 expert |
2. CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) | 1 expert | 9 experts | 2 experts | 0 expert |
3. United air defense system | 4 experts | 2 experts | 4 experts | 2 experts |
4.SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) | 1 expert | 8 experts | 2 experts | 1 expert |
5. Renewed system of European defense, alternative to NATO | 2 experts | 4 experts | 4 experts |
|
- If Ukraine will be accessed to NATO how will it influence the following spheres?
On the scale 0 - 10, where «0» means extremely negative, and «10» - maximally positive
Name | Average score | No influence | Difficult to say
|
1. Relations with European Union | 8,3 |
|
|
2. Relations with Russia | 3,5 |
|
|
3. Government effectiveness | 7,4 |
|
|
4. International security of Ukraine | 9,4 |
|
|
5. International authority of Ukraine | 7,8 |
|
|
6. Economy development | 6,6 |
|
|
7. Defense capability of Ukraine | 8 |
|
|
8. The level of democracy in Ukraine | 7,8 |
|
|
9. The level of well-being of the population of Ukraine | 6 |
| 1experts |
10. The level of corruption | 5,8 |
| 2experts |
11. The work of enterprises of military-industrial complex | 5,7 |
|
|
13. How will accession to NATO influence economic situation in Ukraine?
1 – it will improve the investments climate, will provide the possibility to attract foreign investors | 11 mentions |
2 - it will provide the possibility to Ukrainian products to enter the markets of NATO countries | 2 mentions |
3 - it will lead to the decrease of the sales of Ukrainian products in Russia | 2 mentions |
4 – it will make the realization of mutual projects with Russia in high-tech spheres more complicated | 4 mentions |
5 – it will lead to the shortening of work places in Ukrainian military-industrial complex and related sectors | 2 mentions |
6– it will cause economic sanctions from Russia against Ukrainian business | 5 mentions |
7 – it will not significantly influence economic potential of Ukraine | 2 mentions |
8– other | 0 mentions |
9 – it is difficult to answer |
|
14. What kind of political consequences can appear after Ukraine has joined NATO?
1 – Ukraine will have to fit with democratic standards of the West | 10 mentions |
2 – Ukraine will improve its reputation in democratic society | 9 mentions |
3– it will lead to mass protests | 0 mentions |
4– it will provoke the split of Ukraine into West and South-East | 1 mentions |
5 – the ratings of political forces that supported Ukraine’s accession to NATO will go down | 1 mentions |
6 – visa regime will be introduced with Russia and other countries of the CIS, which will cause the displeasure of separated families | 4 mentions |
7 – other | 1 mentions |
8– there will be no significant political consequences | 0 mentions |
9 – it is difficult to answer |
|
15. How, to your opinion, will the accession of Ukraine to NATO influence Russian-Ukrainian relations in the sphere of economy?
The relations will worsen in the beginning, but then stabilize | 5 mentions |
No significant changes will occur | 2 mentions |
The relations will deteriorate | 1 mention |
Russia will try to establish economic embargo against Ukraine | 1 mention |
The relations will improve |
|
16. How, to your opinion, will the accession of Ukraine to NATO influence Russian-Ukrainian relations in the sphere of politics?
The relations will stabilize | 3 mentions |
The relations will deteriorate | 2 mentions |
Tensions at first, then stabilization | 2 mentions |
The relations will improve | 1 mention |
Russia will become more aggressive | 1 mention |
Other |
|
17. How do you evaluate the level of awareness of Ukrainian population about NATO?
1 – quite high; | 0 expert |
2 – in general, satisfactory; | 1 expert |
3 - in general, non-satisfactory | 8 experts |
4 – almost null | 3 experts |
5– it is difficult to say |
|
18. Numerous sociological researches show that the majority of Ukrainian population is against of the membership of Ukraine in NATO. Why?
Population is poorly informed about true nature of NATO | 9 mentions |
There is a fear of confrontation with Russia | 3 mentions |
Lack in advocacy campaigns on the side of civil society | 2 mentions |
High quantity of Russian population, which is anti-NATO | 2 mentions |
Population is not committed to democratic values strong enough | 1 mention |
Political leadership is not interested in joining NATO | 1 mention |
Low visibility of NATO | 1 mention |
Military personnel are afraid of losing their jobs after joining NATO |
|
19. Which reasons, to your opinion, can improve the attitude of the population towards NATO?
Strong and complex informational campaign about NATO | 9 mentions |
Government should support NATO membership | 3 mentions |
Higher visibility of NATO | 2 mentions |
Stronger commitment of population to democratic values | 1 mention |
Expert List
- Anjaparidze Zaal - Eurasia Partnership Foundation, Georgia, Program Manager
- Akubardia Teona - Civil Council on Defense & Security, Executive Board member
- Devdariani Mikheil - New Generation – New Initiative, Chairmen
- Jamaspishvili Rusudan - Security Research Center
- Tavkhelidze Mikheil - Coalition for the European Georgia
- Lortkhipanidze Shorena - Atlantic Council of Georgia
- Muchaidze George - Atlantic Council of Georgia
- Nodia Ghia – Chairman, Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, CIPDD
- Pataraia Tamar - Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development, CIPDD, Program Director
- Pkhaladze Tengiz - International Centre for Geopolitical Studies, Chairman
- Kobulia Irakli – CENN in Georgia
- Gambashidze Nino – Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development
