LAST YEAR IN THE ASSESSMENT OF EXPERTS

The Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Foundation conducted an expert survey “2016 in the Assessment of Experts” from December 19-27, 2016. The aim of the survey was to bring to light the opinions of experts regarding the main results of 2016 for Ukraine and predictions for next year. A total of 55 experts were surveyed.

Assessment of the overall political situation

• The most important positive event of 2016 in Ukraine experts clearly name the introduction of electronic declarations and the start of the work of new anti-corruption institutions. Experts also consider the sanation of the banking sector, which includes the nationalization of Privatbank and the end of the political crisis that led to changes in the format of the coalition and the government, as the main positive events of the year. Truthfully, a significant part of experts feel the nationalization of Privatbank to be the most ambiguous event of the year that can be assessed as both positive and negative.
• The most negative events of the year were associated with the processes of Euro-integration: the reluctance and failjure of fhe European Union to grant Ukraine a visa-free regime and the disappointing results of the referendum in the Netherlands regarding the Ukraine-EU Association Agreement. Among other negative events were the continuation of the conflict in the Donbas region and the occupation of Crimea, as well as the new political scandals associated with the recordings of people’s deputy Oleksandr Onyshchenko and the leak of the recordings from the so-called “Panama archive”.
• Speaking about internal political successes of Ukraine besides the electronic declaration of incomes, experts most often name macro-economic stabilization and the start of economic revival, fortification of the army and the revamping of the military industrial complex. The start of the work of the National Anti-corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and the National Agency for Preventing Crime (NAPC) and the launching of criminal investigations of corrupt individuals are also considered important initiatives. Besides that, among the main successes were the relative political stability, non-admission of new elections and the start of judicial reform.
• Among the internal political failures experts first note the insufficient progress in the fight against corruption; its absence or even regress. Also quite obvious is the failures in the economic sphere – insufficient pace of economic revival, the sluggish process of economic reforms; the excessively low level of the standards of living of a significant part of the population. Experts also consider the government’s loss of trust, the increase in the ratings of populist forces, the folding of reform of law enforcement bodies and the rise in the level of crime failures in the political The lack of results in resolving the conflict in the Donbas and the de-occupation of Crimea are also considered failures.
• Among foreign policy victories experts note first and foremost the extension of western sanctions against aggressor states and the recognition of Russia as an occupant in the official documents of international organizations, including the United Nations.
• Among the foreign policy failures experts note first and foremost the non-granting of the visa-free regime, the losing wager of Ukrainian politicians on the victory of Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential elections, as well as the hopelessness of the Minsk agreements and negotiations held within the framework of these agreements.

Personalities

• According to expert assessments, the new premier of Ukraine Volodymyr Groisman is the most successful politician based on the results of 2016. Last year’s leader Mikheil Saakashvili was named fourth on this year’s list of the most successful politicians. Second place went to Yulia Tymoshenko and third place --- to Petro Poroshenko.
• Experts named Nadia Savchenko as the least successful politician of the year. Petro Poroshekno took second place and Arseniy Yatsenyuk – third.

Assessments according to

the main indicators of development

• Of the seven spheres of social life assessed, experts positively assessed only two of them: the level of democracy – 5.8 points on a 10-point scale and the state of freedom of speech – 6.5 points the same scale. The highest assessments were given to the level of compliance with the law – 3.4 points and the high level of corruption – 7.8 points. The economic situation, although it was given a low assessment by experts – 3.6 points, compared to last year’s assessment it rose by an entire point on the scale from 2.6 points. The assessment of the state of freedom of enterprise aslo increased – from 4.1 to 4.6 points.
• Experts gave the level of predictability of the country’s development next year an assessment of 4.3 points.

Expert forecasts: what can Ukraine expect in 2017 ?

• Еxperts predict that in 2017 certain political forces will strive for the holding of snap elections. Besides that, it is worth expecting a rise in populism in politics, an aggravation of political rivalry and a rise in social tension. In terms of the economy experts predict economic growth, though rather insignificant.
• On the international arena the status of Ukraine will most likely be slightly complicated due to the changes in government in a number of European countries. This could become a precondition for easing or lifting of sanctions against Russia. On the positive side, in 2017 the visa-free regime with the EU is expected to take force.
• Experts over the course of several years have noted that the fight against corruption should be a priority of the Ukrainian leadership in the foreseeable future. Besides the anti-corruption endeavors, judicial reform must continue in order to firmly entrench the principle of supremacy of law.