Ukraine on the Eve of Local Elections: expert regional poll
The expert regional poll “Ukraine on the Eve of Local Elections” was conducted from October 15th to October 22nd, 2020. The goal of the poll was to understand how experts evaluate the performance of governmental institutions, local governments, and the features of the 2020 local elections. 79 experts participated in the poll.
- The majority of institutions that experts evaluated scored low on mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic. Mayors (2.5/5) and governors (2.3/5) received the highest scores.
- The experts believe that the pandemic “will make it more difficult for the election commissions to function” (71%). The majority of experts also note that “turnout will decrease (fewer people will show up to vote)” (68%). The notion that is most contested by experts is that “the election agenda has changed – national questions have become more important than the local ones” (30%).
- Regional experts note that authorities to do not communicate the decisions in a clear manner. The mayors scored 2.8 out 5 – a relatively high score. The Ministry of Health scored 2.6, and the Cabinet of Ministers scored 2.2.
- Among the issues that may potentially contribute to the mass protests in cities, the fraud during the local elections was the likeliest cause, according to experts. Some experts believe that protests against the initiative of the government to end the war in Donbas are likely.
- The majority of experts note that unfair campaigning and advertising practices have been often employed during the campaigning process. Further, the use of the administrative rouse, fakes and disinformation about opponents, as well as bribery of voters were widely employed.
- Experts believe that parties and candidates are the ones who perpetuate election fraud practices. At the same time, the heads of enterprises, institutions, organizations and mayors also contributed to the issue.
SURVEY RESULTS
- How would you rate the performance of the following subjects related to the mitigation of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic IN THE PAST THREE MONTHS?
| 1 – very inefficient | 2 – mostly inefficient | 3 - mediocre | 4 – mostly efficient | 5 – very efficient | Undecided | Average score |
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi | 34,2 | 35,4 | 20,3 | 5,1 | 2,5 | 2,5 | 2,0 |
Ministry of Health | 24,1 | 43,0 | 26,6 | 5,1 | 0,0 | 1,3 | 2,1 |
Ministry of the Internal Affairs | 25,3 | 40,5 | 19,0 | 10,1 | 0,0 | 5,1 | 2,1 |
Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine | 27,8 | 38,0 | 22,8 | 7,6 | 0,0 | 3,8 | 2,1 |
Verkhovna Rada (parliament) of Ukraine | 30,4 | 31,6 | 30,4 | 6,3 | 0,0 | 1,3 | 2,1 |
The Head of the Oblast Administration (governor) of your oblast (region) | 30,4 | 21,5 | 22,8 | 13,9 | 3,8 | 7,6 | 2.3 |
Mayor of your city | 29,1 | 19,0 | 26,6 | 16,5 | 5,1 | 3,8 | 2,5 |
- For the first time, the elections in Ukraine are taking place during a dangerous pandemic and lockdown. Please state your opinion about the possible impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the local elections process.
| Most probably, yes | Most probably, no | Undecided |
The campaigning has moved online | 39,2 | 48,1 | 12,7 |
Turnout will decrease (fewer people will show up to vote) | 68,4 | 22,8 | 8,9 |
It will be more difficult for the election commissions to function | 70,9 | 20,3 | 8,9 |
The election agenda has changed – national questions have become more important than the local ones | 30,4 | 46,8 | 22,8 |
Current mayors have gained an advantage | 41,8 | 44,3 | 13,9 |
Candidates who volunteered during the lockdown will gain popularity | 38,0 | 36,7 | 25,3 |
Candidates who represent businesses and provided assistance during the lockdown will gain popularity | 40,5 | 39,2 | 20,3 |
3. How would you rate the performance of the following subjects related to the communication of decisions with the public IN THE PAST THREE MONTHS?
| 1 – very inefficient | 2 – mostly inefficient | 3 - mediocre | 4 – mostly efficient | 5 – very efficient | Undecided | Average score |
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi | 31,6 | 34,2 | 17,7 | 3,8 | 6,3 | 6,3 | 2,1 |
Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine | 22,8 | 36,7 | 26,6 | 6,3 | 0,0 | 7,6 | 2,2 |
Ministry of Health | 19,0 | 25,3 | 38,0 | 11,4 | 5,1 | 1,3 | 2,6 |
The Head of the Oblast Administration (governor) of your oblast (region) | 24,1 | 27,8 | 26,6 | 7,6 | 5,1 | 7,6 | 2,3 |
Mayor of your city | 17,7 | 22,8 | 30,4 | 20,3 | 7,6 | 1,3 | 2,8 |
- What causes may potentially contribute to mass protests and demonstrations in your region in OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2020?
| 1 –will definitely not take place | 2 – will most likely not take place | 3 - The probability of the event taking place and not taking place is roughly the same | 4 – will most likely take place | 5 – will definitely take place | Undecided |
Lockdown measures | 20,3 | 29,1 | 29,1 | 15,2 | 2,5 | 3,8 |
Poor mitigation of the COVID-19 pandemic by the authorities | 20,3 | 43,0 | 25,3 | 8,9 | 0,0 | 2,5 |
Increase in the price of utilities | 10,1 | 29,1 | 39,2 | 15,2 | 2,5 | 3,8 |
Political persecution of opposition parties by the authorities | 22,8 | 34,2 | 22,8 | 12,7 | 2,5 | 5,1 |
Support by citizens for certain politicians or political organizations | 8,9 | 32,9 | 36,7 | 16,5 | 1,3 | 3,8 |
Protection of civil liberties from the incursion by the government | 12,7 | 26,6 | 39,2 | 13,9 | 5,1 | 2,5 |
The initiative by the government to end the war in Donbas | 12,7 | 22,8 | 36,7 | 19,0 | 6,3 | 2,5 |
Fraud during local elections | 8,9 | 31,6 | 31,6 | 20,3 | 5,1 | 2,5 |
- Please evaluate the frequency of use of the following ways to influence the outcome of elections in your region (city)?
| Often used | Sometimes used | Rarely used | Not aware of the issue |
Bribery of voters (money, goods, services) | 41,8 | 43,0 | 3,8 | 11,4 |
Unfair campaigning and advertising practices | 64,6 | 27,8 | 0,0 | 7,6 |
The use of the administrative resource (campaigning at workplace, the involvement of communal and state-owned enterprises in the campaign, the use of authority to obstruct the campaign of the opponents) | 53,2 | 35,4 | 6,3 | 5,1 |
Voter intimidation | 6,3 | 17,7 | 41,8 | 34,2 |
The intimidation of political opponents and candidates | 3,8 | 29,1 | 40,5 | 26,6 |
Pressure on the media | 11,4 | 22,8 | 26,6 | 39,2 |
The spread of fakes and disinformation about opponents | 49,4 | 36,7 | 3,8 | 10,1 |
The bribery of the election commissions to impact the vote counting process | 16,5 | 22,8 | 11,4 | 49,4 |
The application of pressure on the election commissions to impact the vote counting process | 13,9 | 19,0 | 16,5 | 50,6 |
The use of “clones” (non-electable candidates who have the same last name as the opponents) | 17,7 | 30,4 | 26,6 | 25,3 |
The interference of foreign governments with the election process | 8,9 | 13,9 | 25,3 | 51,9 |
- Please indicate how often the following subjects of the election process have employed fraud to affect the outcome of the elections.
| Often | Sometimes | No such conduct | Undecided |
Parties, deputy candidates | 38,0 | 32,9 | 2,5 | 26,6 |
Governors | 16,5 | 38,0 | 5,1 | 40,5 |
Mayors | 16,5 | 35,4 | 6,3 | 41,8 |
Heads of enterprises, institutions, organizations (hospitals, schools) | 12,7 | 50,6 | 5,1 | 31,6 |
Heads of security services (police, SSU, representatives of the Prosecutor General’s Office) | 6,3 | 22,8 | 19,0 | 51,9 |
Local businessmen (not participating candidates) | 7,6 | 34,2 | 10,1 | 48,1 |
Criminal gangs | 8,9 | 17,7 | 7,6 | 65,8 |
List of experts who participated in the poll
- Anatolii Boyko
- Anatolii Stoyan
- Andriy Tokarskii
- Anzhela Kardynal
- Anna Murlykina
- Anna Osypchuk
- Anna Chaikovska
- Artem Konovalov
- Barannykov Serhii
- Berezuk Kateryna
- Brynza Yakiv
- Valerii Bolhan
- Vivchar Iryna
- Vita Dumanska
- Vitalii Zuzin
- Vishtaluk Oleh
- Hazhur Maryna
- Hanna Kolomiets
- Heorhii Byanov
- Hud Svitlana
- Hunchenko Serhii
- Hurtovenko Denys
- Danko Taras
- Dmytro Bulah
- Dmytro Cheretun
- Evhen Kuzmychov
- Yelyzaveta Lirska
- Zotkina Natalya
- Ihor Bychkov
- Ihor Dotsyak
- Ihor Zots
- Inna Eschenko
- Iryna Zhuk
- Iryna Lyahul
- Ismailov Karen
- Kalenska Mariia
- Kyryla Zakharov
- Kovalenko Kristina
- Kovalchuk Serhii
- Kuryanov Evhen
- Kuts Yehor
- Leonid Shtekel
- Maksym Dolzhenko
- Maksym Kovalyk
- Maksym Cherkashyn
- Matvii Dukh
- Nataliia Morozova
- Nataliia Noritsina
- Nataliia Pyvovarova
- Nataliia Yakovleva
- Nataliia Chermoshentseva
- Nataliia Shalnova
- Novikova Svitlana
- Ohorodnyk Serhii
- Oksana Halkevych
- Oleh Konotoptsev
- Oleksandr Halyas
- Oleksandr Korenkov
- Oleksandr Chumak
- Oleksandra Fadeyeva
- Oleksandra Schukina
- Olena Karchevska
- Olha Klymko
- Petro Hois
- Piven Natalya
- Potiomkin Serhii
- Roman Serduk
- Serhii Zhyzhko
- Suleimanov Ibrahim
- Tetyana Bidnyak
- Tetyana Kovaliova
- Fedotova Andrii
- Yuliya Horodchanina
- Yuliya Konotoptseva
- Yuriy Khrystenzen
- The expert preferred to remain anonymous
- The expert preferred to remain anonymous
- The expert preferred to remain anonymous
Please indicate your occupation
| Number of responses |
Activist | 40 |
Expert, analyst, scientist | 30 |
Journalist | 14 |
Other | 16 |
